In Issac Asimov's Lecture on Humanity, he makes many predictions on life in the 21st century; many predictions which I believe will come true (and already have), but many that seem far too extreme to be possible. Not to discredit him, but I think the predictions that he gave which seem to be accurate are based on changes in society that have been long forthcoming, and others seem to be far too outlandish to be true.
For example, he gives the anecdote about women and their increasing role in the workforce: “…in order to keep the birth rate down, we’re going to have to give women interesting things to do that’ll make them glad to stay out of the nursery… I mean we’re going to have women help in running the government, and science, and industry.” (Asimov 7) Though he ties this example to lower the birthrate, and then later to old age, the concept of employed women has been around since before Asimov’s time, growing, some would say, since in the mid-1800s; but definitely by prohibition time, the eighteenth amendment, and the progressive era. It is for this reason that I wouldn’t really call this a prediction…just an inevitable truth that he claims a prediction by relating it to other examples.
In contrary to this, Asimov gives examples of things that I cannot foresee as ever being true. On page 10, he talks about a world without war. He says that today, “we are already in a world without war” which to me, makes little to no sense. Above he describes small bombings as not a true war, a nuclear war as emotionally ineffective, and a traditional war as impractical “because nobody’s got the gasoline for it.” And though this all seems true, a world without war seems like a total 70s, hippie movement take on life. However, Asimov also says “the greatest gift mankind has is its vast gene pool.” (10). These two statements, though only half a page apart, seem to completely contradict themselves. So long as the population has a “vast gene pool”, there will be disagreements, which, in turn, will probably lead to fighting. When disagreements are so huge, time, pride, and gasoline do not matter; the drive for conquest takes over. I think that humans can be barbaric and for this reason, no matter what the cost, wars will always be inevitable.
Asimov ends his speech more realistically by stating all good things must come to an end: "I hope you see a world in which mankind has decided to be sane. But I must say in all honesty that I figure the changes are against it." All the same, he presents an argument for the betterment of humanity (no war, no racism, no sexism, peace, responsibility) and then draws on multiple examples and anecdotes to prove his point. Though I cannot say I agree with his argument, I respect his semi-synoptic approach to the solution.